Turkey’s Government in Shambles: What this means for the 2023 presidential election
Photo by Abigail Mason
Perhaps it’s fate, or some divine retribution—How Erdogan’s own actions have reduced his government to rubble.
The earthquake that devastated southeast Turkey and regions of Syria on February 6, 2023, may have impacts that extend far past the physical ruin of the region and catastrophic loss of life. The response of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government has been utterly lacking in support and accountability—something that Turkey’s people will remember as the Presidential election on June 18, 2023 looms closer. As of early February, Erdogan was poised for reelection. His recent efforts to lower the age limit for pension collection, increasing the minimum wage, and pushing for debt relief may prove fruitless, as the reality of Erdogan’s turbulent government was revealed to millions of people around the globe.
The current state of Turkey’s government, and the magnitude of devastation that has resulted from the earthquake can be attributed to one thing—corruption. The corruption of Turkey’s government has been a reality for Erdogan’s Turkish critics throughout the two decades that he has held power. However, Erdogan’s earthquake response has angered even his most ardent supporters.
Crisis Mismanagement
As nearly 46,000 people have been confirmed dead, and millions of Turkish citizens have been left homeless, it should be asked whether this devastation could have been avoided, or even lessened in impact. Absolutely. This is the fault of Erdogan’s government and its years of corrupt rule for personal political and economic gain. When Erdogan took power in 2003 as Turkey’s Prime Minister, his political platform was centered around the criticism of government response to the devastating 1999 earthquake that led to the deaths of approximately 18,000 Turkish people. He blamed “all the ills of the 1990s on widespread corruption, dysfunctional governments, and unresponsive state institutions.” He also promised that his government would change things—rid Turkey of corruption. Ultimately, Erdogan’s government has proved no different, and as this year’s election approaches, it may be exactly what gave him power that takes it away.
Cutting Corners
One of Erdogan’s strategies throughout his presidency, has been to develop the infrastructure of the country. However, with the desire to achieve this as quickly as possible, Erdogan has been accused of granting companies permission to complete building projects without standard safety checks. This has resulted in the construction of millions of unsafe structures throughout the country—structures that are far more likely to crumble during an earthquake. Cutting safety code corners was the way that Erdogan’s government believed Turkey’s housing shortage crisis would be solved.
This is not the first time that infrastructure mismanagement has had devastating impacts. In 2014, a mine explosion in the town of Soma led to the deaths of 301 people. The chairman of the mining company had close ties with Erdogan, and was accused of cutting safety corners in their government-funded company expansion. Gonul Tol of the Middle East Institute says that Erdogan was able to suppress an “opposition-led parliamentary motion to investigate conditions at the mine.”
Economy
Even before the earthquake, Turkey’s economy was struggling. The Turkish lira was collapsing and “runaway inflation” had “reached an annual rate of 85 percent in October.” Erdogan’s financial policies are to blame for this economic decline. He has “tightened his control over the economy and strengthened ties with Russia and the Gulf States to help bolster Turkey’s finances,” says Liz Alderman of The New York Times. Turkey’s shaky economy will be one of the points that Erdogan’s opponents will raise in the upcoming election. Not only has the Turkish lira lost “nearly 30 percent of its value,” the country “also faces a mountain of external loan payments, worth nearly $185 billion.” They have been unable to pay off their debts and “international investors, worried about heavy debt burdens at Turkish companies, have increasingly pulled money from the country since 2018,” Alderman continues. The Turkish people are feeling the effects of their declining economy, and this will likely be reflected in the presidential election.
Presidential Election
Prior to 2007, the presidential office was elected by the Grand National Assembly of Turkey. Following a 2007 referendum, the president is now elected by popular vote in a two-round system where a candidate must receive at least half of the vote. Erdogan’s candidacy for reelection has been subject to controversy. The Turkish constitution states that a president can only serve two five-year terms. However, in February 2022, Mustafa Sentop, the acting Parliamentary Speaker of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, declared that Erdogan was permitted to run for reelection. If he wins, this will be his third term as president. In 2018, Erdogan won the election with 52.59% of the popular vote.
I expect that the results of the 2023 Turkish presidential election, if held on the previously determined date, will reflect a shift in the national attitude towards Recep Tayyip Erdogan. There is a correlation between the occurrence of natural disasters and voting patterns. Voters look at government response to these events and vote accordingly. In a true democratic system, this pattern would most likely be reflected. However, the corruption of the Turkish government may influence the results of the election. In the wake of the earthquake, the presidential election could be pushed later in the year, providing Erdogan the time to implement his “fast-track rebuilding program, to start replacing thousands of destroyed homes within one year.” However, if Turkey’s supposed democracy proves itself to be effective, the country may see a much needed shift in governmental power.
Turkish Presidential Election (2018)
Election Resources
The Washington Post named the Turkish presidential election as the most important election of 2023. It is believed that “the outcome will shape geopolitical and economic calculations in Washington and Moscow, as well as capitals across Europe, the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa.” As the election fast approaches, numerous news outlets will be following the results. Here are a few resources that will likely be reporting on the process:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy